The Gamblers Fallacy

By Don Smith

There is a certain idea that plagues many gamblers, whether they are new to online roulette or online roulette veterans. This idea single handedly chews through the bankrolls of gamblers and online roulette players across the world, whether they are good or bad, young or old.

The one thing that I'm talking about is known as The Gambler's Fallacy. The Gambler's Fallacy has been tricking players into making bad bets for centuries, possibly longer than that. If you take your money seriously you must be constantly vigilant against The Gambler's Fallacy.

In a nutshell The Gambler's Fallacy is the false belief that past events will influence future events when in reality they do not. An example would be that many players think that if the ball lands on red five times in a row that they should bet on black since it is bound to land on black sooner than later.

The table does not have a memory, and it doesn't matter what the past spins resulted in. Many people try to use past spins as an indicator for future spins when in reality this does nothing at all. Past spins have no bearing on what future outcomes will be.

The reason The Gambler's Fallacy is able to claim so many victims is that unless one really does some research on the odds The Gambler's Fallacy makes perfect sense. It takes some further examination in order to discover that The Gambler's Fallacy is just that.

To show why The Gambler's Fallacy is an easy trick to fall for I'll lay out some math. After laying out the math I'll show where most people go wrong in their assessment and then I will show the correct approach to the issue.

For this experiment we need to pretend that there is no zero on the online roulette table, it simply makes the math easier. Picture the ball landing on an even number, the odds of this happening are 50%. Now picture the ball landing on an even number twice in a row, the odds of this happening are less than 50%. This is what makes it look like the ball is more likely to land odd after going even. However if you do the math you will find that the ball going even and then even again is just as likely to happen as the ball going even and then odds.

Now that you know that The Gambler's Fallacy will steer you the wrong way you can now improve your online roulette play. There's no reason to let an idea suck away funds from your bankroll. Your bankroll should be for online roulette, not for feeding a gambling horror.

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